| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 1.7 C |
| RH | | 12 % |
| Wind | | E 1 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 072 FXHW60 PHFO 161357 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 400 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure far north-northeast of the islands will maintain moderate trade winds over the islands at least through the rest of the work week. Clouds and showers will favor the windward and mauka areas under the trade wind flow. The leeward side of the Big Island will see clouds and showers during the afternoon through the late night hours. && .DISCUSSION... Trade wind weather continues across the islands early this evening as a surface high pressure persists far north-northeast of the area. More low clouds carried by the trades have reached the islands overnight, bringing showers to mainly windward and mountain areas. Satellite imagery revealed more ragged patches of low clouds are present just east of the islands early this morning and these low clouds will provide more passing showers to the area through rest of the morning. Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings stayed about the same compared to yesterday afternoon's, with both soundings depicting a somewhat stable air mass with low level moisture extending to about 7k feet. Once again, expect low clouds and showers in the island vicinity to decrease a bit later today with daytime heating under a somewhat stable air mass. Trade wind weather will prevail over the area through rest of the work week, with some changes in the weather expected. The high far north-northeast will drift further east and weaken slightly in the next few days, then expected to remain nearly stationary over the weekend into early next week. Therefore, expect a slow weakening trend in the winds over the islands through the next few days, with wind speeds easing low to moderate levels. Not much changes in the low level moisture are expected in the next few days, though latest model guidance still indicates an increase of tropical moisture over the state this weekend and into early next week. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) continues to monitor the potential development of a tropical depression southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. As of 200 AM HST, the probability of development within 48 hours remains medium, while the probability is high that a weak tropical cyclone may develop during the next 5 days. For additional information on this system, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by CPHC at weather.gov/cphc. Since it is still too early to know if an organized tropical system will actually develop, the potential changes in weather conditions over the main Hawaiian Islands later this weekend or early next week also remain uncertain at this time. Based on the long range forecast models, the biggest potential impacts may be a strengthening of trade wind speeds, plus the possibility of more organized and persistent showers, especially over the Big Island. && .AVIATION... High pressure northeast of the state will keep a moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow in place through tonight. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but a few showers will spread leeward, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in windward areas as the showers move through, with PHLI and PHTO the most likely TAF sites to see these conditions. Additionally, PHNY will likely see MVFR cigs once the sea breeze develops later today. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of the mountains of all islands. The AIRMET is expected to continue through the day today. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve later this morning. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for locally strong trade winds across the typically windy waters adjacent to the islands of Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA is currently in effect through Thursday afternoon. The latest forecast maintains SCA conditions in these same areas into this weekend. A small, long-period south swell will maintain small background surf along south facing shores through tonight. A small, long-period south-southeast swell is expected to fill in Thursday, peak Friday, and then gradually subside this weekend. Another small, reinforcing long-period southwest swell is forecast to reach the islands this weekend. Rough moderate surf will persist along east facing shores due to breezy trades in the vicinity of, and upstream of the islands. Surf may trend down along east facing shores this weekend as the trades weaken slightly. Surf will likely remain below the High Surf Advisory criteria along all shorelines through early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ Jelsema/Houston/Hui Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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