| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 4.3 C |
| RH | | 4 % |
| Wind | | WSW 9 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 260 FXHW60 PHFO 200637 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 837 PM HST Tue Mar 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Stable and dry conditions will persist across the islands through Wednesday night, thanks to a persistent high to our northeast. Trade winds will increase Thursday and Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will be close enough to usher in increased clouds and showers across the area Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure far northeast of the islands, combined with ridging aloft, will continue to bring drier than normal conditions to the region tonight. The high is expected to move eastward through Wednesday and the pressure gradient over the islands will slacken. This will cause winds to decrease state-wide. By Thursday, a front will edge closer to the main Hawaiian islands, tightening the pressure gradient and boosting winds across local waters once again. Models show the frontal cloud and shower band reaching Kauai on Saturday, but not making it much further down the island chain. Trade winds and moisture are expected to increase along and ahead of the front. The result will be an increase in rainfall coverage, favoring windward areas over leeward areas. Sunday will see surface high pressure building in behind the front as an upper trough approaches the islands from the west. Expect windy conditions due to the high, and increased trade shower activity due to instability provided by the upper trough. The upper trough is expected to push through the islands by Monday night, leaving a drier trade wind pattern in its wake. && .AVIATION... The high pressure ridge north of the islands will weaken on Wednesday with lighter winds in the forecast. Expect sea breezes and interior clouds to develop over each island in the later morning to afternoon hours. No AIRMETS are currently in effect or anticipated through this period. && .MARINE... A brief period with light to moderate trades is expected late tonight through Wednesday night as the ridge shifts south near the area due to a front passing to the north. Some areas near the coasts will experience land and sea breeze conditions during this period, mostly leeward coasts. A return of fresh to strong trades is expected Thursday through the weekend as high pressure builds north of the area. A combination of overlapping north to northwest swells and wind waves rising from the strengthening trades will lead to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions over exposed waters late Thursday through the weekend. Seas may reach advisory levels over exposed waters Wednesday into Wednesday night due to a large northwest swell expected to build down the island chain. Surf along north and west facing shores will remain up through the weekend as the active pattern across the north Pacific continues. A series of north to northwest swells is expected with the first one building down the island chain through the day Wednesday, likely peaking late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A long- period reinforcement is expected Friday with its peak Friday night into Saturday. A similar swell is expected to build down the island chain Sunday, then gradually ease through Monday. Surf will climb to and above advisory levels by the end of the day Wednesday, then likely continue through Sunday. A moderate northerly swell will be possible next Monday night through Tuesday that could bring the surf back to around advisory levels for north facing shores. Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday, then rise Friday through the weekend as fresh to strong trades return. Surf along south facing shores will remain small each day with mainly background southerly pulses moving through. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Powell AVIATION...Bohlin MARINE...Gibbs Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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