Maunakea Weather Center

NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans:
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special

Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

192
FXHW60 PHFO 100654
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
854 PM HST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy easterly trades will continue through the
upcoming week, with periods of showery conditions over windward
and mauka locations as areas of moisture move through. The trades
could become gusty Wednesday through the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in decent agreement and depicts the breezy
easterly trades persisting through the upcoming week as deep high
pressure remains anchored to the north. A band of low clouds
lurking nearby to the north is forecast to drift southward into
the smaller islands over the next couple of days. This could lead
to periods with showery conditions for windward and mauka
locations, with a few making it into leeward areas. Rainfall
accumulations should remain on the light side. Some drier air
filling in will follow Monday through Tuesday, which should reduce
the shower coverage.

Trades could become gusty from around Wednesday through the second
half of the week as strong high pressure builds to the north in
the wake of a cold front. The tail-end of this front could settle
southward toward the islands late next week. This increase in
moisture combined with lowering upper heights may enhance
windward shower coverage next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Easterly trades will continue through the rest of the weekend.
SHRA and low cigs should be confined to windward and mauka
locations. Brief MVFR conds are possible in SHRA but VFR should
prevail.

AIRMET Sierra for mtn obsc may be needed tonight if SHRA increase
in coverage.

AIRMET Tango for mod low level turb remains in effect over and
down wind of all island terrain.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands will drift
eastward over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong
northeasterly to easterly trade winds will continue through
Tuesday. Trade wind speeds will strengthen to near gale levels by
Wednesday, as a strong high pressure system builds in north of the
island chain. These stronger trades will continue through next
week Friday.

The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island and could be expanded
to include all Hawaiian Coastal Waters from Wednesday onward.

The current medium period NNW (330 degree) swell will gradually
decline through Monday. The forerunners of the next moderate NW
(320 degree) swell will build into Hawaiian waters, peaking near
advisory levels by Monday evening. This swell will be followed by
a slightly larger NW (320 degree) swell filling in from late
Tuesday to Wednesday, which should produce advisory level surf
along N and W facing shores.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy
through the middle of next week due to the breezy trade winds.
Long range models are showing a significant increase of wind waves
towards the latter half of next week due to a large fetch of
strong trade winds setting up over and upstream of the state.
Surf heights should exceed advisory thresholds along east facing
shores during its peak.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small and near the
seasonal average through the middle of next week. Mainly
background south swell pulses linger in the long range forecast.

Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards late next week
(Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal inundation impacts
during the early morning high tide periods for vulnerable coastal
areas on all islands. The large wind waves combined with the peak
monthly tides could cause greater impacts along eastern shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Bohlin

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office