| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 7.6 C |
| RH | | 6 % |
| Wind | | NE 17 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 096 FXHW60 PHFO 261933 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 933 AM HST Thu May 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Stable and dry conditions prevail for the next week as trades focus limited shower activity over windward slopes, mainly overnight. Trades remain locally breezy through tonight, then ease slightly during the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Strong mid-level subsidence and a very dry airmass above 7kft contribute very stable conditions this morning and for the next several days. For today, mostly sunny skies will prevail over leeward zones while locally breezy trades focus shallow, stable clouds containing little to no rainfall over windward slopes. As the weekend progresses, the gradient will ease slightly allowing a hybrid sea breeze pattern to emerge. While this will bring enhanced cloud cover over the most sheltered leeward areas, high stability will limit afternoon rainfall potential. At the same time, the band of cirrus streaming from SW-NE south of the islands at press time will gradually lift northward coincident a poleward migration of the subtropical jet. This will in turn bring periods of filtered sun as the coverage of high clouds expands this weekend. Global models indicate the return of locally breezy trades early next week and continuing into the extended. Continued stability will limit any rainfall potential as the islands remain firmly under the influence of strong mid-level ridging through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... High pressure centered north of the islands, will maintain moderate to locally breezy low-level trade winds through tonight. Dry and stable conditions continue across the Hawaiian Islands underneath a strong low lvl trade wind inversion. This pattern will focus limited showers toward windward zones. Sea breeze circulations developing this afternoon will enhance cloud cover and chances for isolated showers over sheltered leeward interior areas, especially across the Big Island. The greatest coverage of lower clouds and trade wind showers, will trend toward late night and early Friday morning. Mainly VFR conds are expected to prevail through Friday, however an area of broken SC moving across the state and trapped under the low lvl inversion, will briefly generate a period of MVFR cigs today. Low lvl mechanical turb meeting AIRMET criteria will increase across portions of the islands today, as locally breezy easterly trade winds continue through tonight. Additionally, we are monitoring the possibility of moderate upper level turbulence developing between FL280/350 over the eastern islands tonight, in response to a weakly organized sub-tropical jet lifting up toward the islands. && .MARINE... No changes to the swells and related grids with the morning package, and not expecting to make any significant changes with the afternoon package. The including swell is not expected to reach the buoys until tonight, so will have little in the way of ground truth until then. A high pressure ridge north of the main Hawaiian islands will continue to bring fresh to strong trade winds to the coastal waters through Friday. A front to the northwest of the ridge is expected to move to the east, pushing the ridge closer to the islands, which will result in winds veering to a more east to southeast direction, and weakening the pressure gradient over the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windier areas near Maui County and the Big Island through Friday afternoon. With winds expected to decrease this weekend, the SCA will more than likely be dropped Friday night. The ridge is expected retreat northward early next week, which will allow the trades to return, so expect the SCA to be back next week. An incoming south swell is expected to arrive tonight (forerunners may show up later today), with another boost coming Tuesday due to an active pattern near New Zealand. The initial swell is expected to bring advisory level surf late Friday through Saturday night. The next swell is currently looking to reach warning levels late Tuesday through Wednesday. A small north-northwest well moving through today will maintain surf along north and west facing shores. Expect this swell to east later tonight through Friday. A similar northwest swell is expected by Sunday, which will linger into Monday before easing. Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy through Friday with the breezy trades in place. A downward trend is anticipated over the weekend as the winds diminish and shift out of the east to southeast. As trades rebound next week, expect an uptick in the east facing surf. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...JVC AVIATION...SWR MARINE...M Ballard Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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