NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
974
FXHW60 PHFO 040156
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
356 PM HST Tue Dec 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively dry and stable conditions will persist through
Wednesday, with nighttime land breezes developing tonight.
A front will move across Kauai on Thursday, then dissipate
over the central portion of the state on Friday. Chances of
rain will increase ahead of and along the frontal boundary,
with moderate to locally breezy northeast winds filling in
behind it.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A dry and stable air mass will remain in place due to a ridge of
high pressure over the state. Winds this afternoon remained light
and variable with a background southerly flow. This allowed for
the development of weak afternoon sea breezes which brought a few
clouds and light showers to interior portions. Expect nighttime
land breezes to develop shortly after sunset which will allow for
some clearing tonight.
Starting Wednesday, a front will begin to approach the state from
the northwest. Southerly wind flow will strengthen around the
western end of the state, increasing chances of showers. By
Thursday, the front is expected to be over or through Kauai with
some prefrontal showers increasing over Oahu and possibly parts of
Maui County. The front is expected to eventually stall out and
dissipate near the central portion of the state Friday. Overall
the front does not look very impressive, but it could bring some
light to moderate rainfall to some much needed locations on the
leeward side. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible late
Thursday into Friday, in the area where the frontal boundary
stalls.
Moderate to locally breezy trades should briefly return over the
western half of the state on Friday as a weak high develops
northwest of the state. Trades will be short-lived as the high
quickly shifts east as another front passes north of the state.
This will put the western end of the state in a light wind flow
patter while gentle easterly winds linger over the eastern end.
Confidence in the weather forecast over the weekend remains low
with most of the ensemble members showing some type of upper level
trough pushing through the state. Stay tuned for more details.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light to occasionally variable winds out of the southerly
quadrant persist. Sea breezes brought a few afternoon clouds which
will be followed by offshore land breezes and clearing tonight.
VFR prevails through the forecast period. Any showers will be
light and transient in nature.
No AIRMETs in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
An E-W oriented surface ridge extending over the islands from the
E is supporting gentle winds statewide that are out of the E-SE
over Big Island waters, and from the S-SW over Kauai and Oahu
waters. Little overall change in the ridge's position is expected
through Wednesday. A low passing N of the islands late Wednesday
and Thursday will force the ridge eastward, with a tightening
low-level gradient supporting fresh to locally strong S to SW
winds statewide as an associated front approaches from the NW.
Fairly high confidence in the front moving over Kauai and Oahu
from late Thursday into Friday, likely stalling on Friday over
the central portion of the island chain. Winds and/or seas will
likely reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria in at least some
of the waters Thursday and Friday.
As the front dissipates, locally fresh post-frontal N winds will
gradually ease and veer to the NE Thursday night into Friday.
Wind speeds will quickly diminish into Saturday, when a period of
light and variable winds is expected. Light NE winds on Sunday are
expected to give way to increasing trade wind flow into next week.
Fetches of near-gale to gale-force winds associated with fast-
moving low pressure systems passing well N of the area will send
NW swell of varying sizes and periods toward the islands this
week. Although most of the swell energy will be in the shorter-
period 12-14 second bands, resultant surf is expected to be near
or above High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels along exposed N and W
facing shores at times.
Wave/swell heights at NDBC buoys 51001/51101 NW of Kauai have
peaked this morning, which should translate to surf peaking this
evening into tonight at HSA thresholds along north and west facing
shores. This current northwest swell should gradually decline over
the next few days and likely drop below HSA thresholds on
Wednesday. Another NW swell Thursday into Friday will likely
produce HSA-level surf before a general diminishing trend in NW
swell develops by next weekend.
An out of season long-period S swell is currently producing surf
near summertime averages along S facing shores. This current south
swell should gradually decline through Thursday. Another long-period
S swell is expected by this weekend, but it will likely be a
little smaller than the current swell.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions not expected through the weekend.
Daytime relative humidity will trend above critical levels through
the weekend due to increasing moisture and showers associated with
a dissipating front.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Windward
Haleakala.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Kino
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
974
FXHW60 PHFO 040156
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
356 PM HST Tue Dec 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively dry and stable conditions will persist through
Wednesday, with nighttime land breezes developing tonight.
A front will move across Kauai on Thursday, then dissipate
over the central portion of the state on Friday. Chances of
rain will increase ahead of and along the frontal boundary,
with moderate to locally breezy northeast winds filling in
behind it.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A dry and stable air mass will remain in place due to a ridge of
high pressure over the state. Winds this afternoon remained light
and variable with a background southerly flow. This allowed for
the development of weak afternoon sea breezes which brought a few
clouds and light showers to interior portions. Expect nighttime
land breezes to develop shortly after sunset which will allow for
some clearing tonight.
Starting Wednesday, a front will begin to approach the state from
the northwest. Southerly wind flow will strengthen around the
western end of the state, increasing chances of showers. By
Thursday, the front is expected to be over or through Kauai with
some prefrontal showers increasing over Oahu and possibly parts of
Maui County. The front is expected to eventually stall out and
dissipate near the central portion of the state Friday. Overall
the front does not look very impressive, but it could bring some
light to moderate rainfall to some much needed locations on the
leeward side. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible late
Thursday into Friday, in the area where the frontal boundary
stalls.
Moderate to locally breezy trades should briefly return over the
western half of the state on Friday as a weak high develops
northwest of the state. Trades will be short-lived as the high
quickly shifts east as another front passes north of the state.
This will put the western end of the state in a light wind flow
patter while gentle easterly winds linger over the eastern end.
Confidence in the weather forecast over the weekend remains low
with most of the ensemble members showing some type of upper level
trough pushing through the state. Stay tuned for more details.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light to occasionally variable winds out of the southerly
quadrant persist. Sea breezes brought a few afternoon clouds which
will be followed by offshore land breezes and clearing tonight.
VFR prevails through the forecast period. Any showers will be
light and transient in nature.
No AIRMETs in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
An E-W oriented surface ridge extending over the islands from the
E is supporting gentle winds statewide that are out of the E-SE
over Big Island waters, and from the S-SW over Kauai and Oahu
waters. Little overall change in the ridge's position is expected
through Wednesday. A low passing N of the islands late Wednesday
and Thursday will force the ridge eastward, with a tightening
low-level gradient supporting fresh to locally strong S to SW
winds statewide as an associated front approaches from the NW.
Fairly high confidence in the front moving over Kauai and Oahu
from late Thursday into Friday, likely stalling on Friday over
the central portion of the island chain. Winds and/or seas will
likely reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria in at least some
of the waters Thursday and Friday.
As the front dissipates, locally fresh post-frontal N winds will
gradually ease and veer to the NE Thursday night into Friday.
Wind speeds will quickly diminish into Saturday, when a period of
light and variable winds is expected. Light NE winds on Sunday are
expected to give way to increasing trade wind flow into next week.
Fetches of near-gale to gale-force winds associated with fast-
moving low pressure systems passing well N of the area will send
NW swell of varying sizes and periods toward the islands this
week. Although most of the swell energy will be in the shorter-
period 12-14 second bands, resultant surf is expected to be near
or above High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels along exposed N and W
facing shores at times.
Wave/swell heights at NDBC buoys 51001/51101 NW of Kauai have
peaked this morning, which should translate to surf peaking this
evening into tonight at HSA thresholds along north and west facing
shores. This current northwest swell should gradually decline over
the next few days and likely drop below HSA thresholds on
Wednesday. Another NW swell Thursday into Friday will likely
produce HSA-level surf before a general diminishing trend in NW
swell develops by next weekend.
An out of season long-period S swell is currently producing surf
near summertime averages along S facing shores. This current south
swell should gradually decline through Thursday. Another long-period
S swell is expected by this weekend, but it will likely be a
little smaller than the current swell.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions not expected through the weekend.
Daytime relative humidity will trend above critical levels through
the weekend due to increasing moisture and showers associated with
a dissipating front.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Windward
Haleakala.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ahue
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Kino
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office