• Home
• MK Forecast
• Trends
• Statistics

• Current Conditions
• Seeing
• Web Cams
• Interactive Map
• Road Conditions
• NWS Bulletins

• Satellite
• Geostationary
• Polar Orbiter

• Radar
• Models
• GFS
• WRF

• Archive
• Links
• Symposium on Seeing
• Glossary
• Feedback
• Disclaimer

Affiliations

Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: Select a text product: Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance Hawaiian Islands Short Term Forecast Hawaiian Islands 7-day Zone Forecast Hydrologic Outlook Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Statement Tornado Warning Severe Weather Statement Severe Thunderstorm Warning Special Weather Statement Winter Storm Warnings/Watches/Advisories Urgent Weather Message Marine Weather Statement/High Surf Advisory/Warning Special Marine Warning Radar Message Special Messages Unknown Terminal Aerodome Foreasts (TAFS) Area Forecast for Hawaii and Adjacent Coastal Waters Upper-level Winds and Temperature Forecast for the 4 Major Hawaii AP AIRMETs for IFR Conditions, Turbulence, and Icing Thunderstorm SIGMETs Hawaiian Islands Satellite Interpetation Message Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Summary Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary Tropical Cyclone SIGMETs Buoy Winds and Wave Forecast Oahu Surf Observation and Forecast/Coastal Forecast for Hawaiian Waters Offshore Forecast for Hawaiian Waters North Pacific High Seas Forecast South Pacific High Seas Forecast Hawaiian Islands Automated Surface Observation System Hourly Weather Roundup Hawaiian Islands Wind Data Hawaiian Islands Rainfall Summary Hawaii Temperature and Precipitation Summary Daily Hawaii Cooperative Observations Honolulu AP Climate Summary Lihue AP Climate Summary Kahului AP Climate Summary Hilo AP Climate Summary Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion West Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Narrow the Menu List Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special

Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 978 FXHW60 PHFO 242004 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1004 AM HST Fri Jan 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light background winds ahead of an approaching cold front will allow sea breezes to set up today. The front will stall and dissipate near Kauai tonight as trade winds fill in. Winds will shift southeasterly by Monday as a front passes by to the north with land and sea breezes prevailing Tuesday into Thursday. Another cold front may bring wet weather next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Visible satellite and radar show mostly sunny skies over most of the state this morning with the exception of some low clouds and showers anchored across windward and southeast slopes of the Big Island. This area of clouds is associated with a pre-frontal convergence band ahead of the approaching front just northwest of Kauai. Zonal flow aloft will keeping the the atmosphere stable through the next week. 12Z soundings show a strong inversion 7-8 kft high with perceptible water values from 0.78 inches at Lihue to 1.16 inches at Hilo. The approaching front is keeping the subtropical ridge over the state resulting in light background flow, which will allow sea breezes to set up this afternoon. Expect increasing cloud cover with just a few light showers setting up across all island interiors, but the relatively dry and stable atmosphere keep any precipitation light. Cloud cover and showers will increase a bit more this afternoon over Kauai as the front moves in and stalls, but again, no significant rainfall is expected. Trade winds will fill in over all islands tonight as a fast moving bubble high behind the front pushes these winds ahead of the boundary. The trades will focus clouds and light showers over windward areas by Saturday, mainly for Kauai as the front dissipates. The trade winds will taper off by and veer southeasterly Sunday night and Monday as another cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will not directly impact the islands as it will pass well to the north on Monday. Yet another front will follow this front and will keep the land and sea breeze pattern flow going through much of next week. Expect clouds to build up during the daytime and clear out at night, with no significant rainfall. Long range guidance shows the cold front moving into the western islands next Friday, but there are differences between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS model brings the front into Kauai and Oahu on Friday, while the European model keeps the entire frontal boundary north of the island chain. Expect these differences in frontal placement to diminish as the forecast time period grows shorter. && .AVIATION... A dissipating cold front approaching the state from the northwest, combined with surface high pressure over the islands, will again allow for light and variable winds today with sea breezes developing along most coasts. Expect dry and VFR conditions with most cloud bases above 3000 feet, though a weak moisture push from the southeast could bring a few showers to eastern portions of the Big Island. As the front approaches this evening, weak tradewind flow and increasing cloud cover are expected to return to Kauai and Oahu. No AIRMETS are anticipated through this afternoon, but may be needed for mountain obscuration on Kauai later tonight as clouds and showers increase ahead of the front. && .MARINE... A front is currently on the verge of entering the Kauai coastal waters and will bring a shift in winds this afternoon. North to northeast winds are expected to begin increasing over the Kauai waters over the next several hours and spread towards the rest of the state late this afternoon into the evening. By tonight, winds are expected to veer to the northeast and strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds across the Hawaiian waters. Locally strong easterly trade winds will then prevail through the weekend. A new front will approach and stall out to the west of the islands early next week, diminishing the winds over the western islands while moderate to locally strong east-southeasterly winds hang on in the unsheltered areas around Maui and the Big Island. Another front approaching from the northwest during the middle and latter part of next week, will diminish winds further, with light and variable winds prevailing across most of the island chain. Seas are expected to rise to SCA levels across a large chunk of the marine area again tonight and Saturday as a new large northwest swell arrives. Trade winds will also strengthen to SCA levels across portions of the marine area this weekend. SCAs will likely be required for most marine zones through the weekend due to a combination of winds and seas, with some areas holding onto SCA level winds and/or seas into early next week. Surf will keep pumping along north and west facing shores as a progressive weather pattern across the northern Pacific keeps a series of large northwest swells moving through the islands. The next northwest swell will fill in late tonight into Saturday with surf peaking at warning levels on Saturday. This swell will be on a downward trend Sunday, but may still hold at warning levels during the day before dropping to advisory levels Sunday night. As this swell eases early next week, advisory level surf may hold through Monday before dropping below HSA threshold Monday night and Tuesday. Over the Big Island, this swell will likely bring advisory level surf to exposed west facing shores over the weekend. Another large northwest swell will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week. Surf along exposed east facing shores will remain small through the period due to the lack of persistent trades locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through next week. A couple background south swells expected over the weekend and again on Tuesday should be enough to keep things from going flat. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...TS MARINE...Kino Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

Home | Forecast | Current OBS | Satellite | Radar | Models | Archive | Links | Disclaimer

This page was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman