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Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: Select a text product: Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance Hawaiian Islands Short Term Forecast Hawaiian Islands 7-day Zone Forecast Hydrologic Outlook Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Statement Tornado Warning Severe Weather Statement Severe Thunderstorm Warning Special Weather Statement Winter Storm Warnings/Watches/Advisories Urgent Weather Message Marine Weather Statement/High Surf Advisory/Warning Special Marine Warning Radar Message Special Messages Unknown Terminal Aerodome Foreasts (TAFS) Area Forecast for Hawaii and Adjacent Coastal Waters Upper-level Winds and Temperature Forecast for the 4 Major Hawaii AP AIRMETs for IFR Conditions, Turbulence, and Icing Thunderstorm SIGMETs Hawaiian Islands Satellite Interpetation Message Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Summary Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary Tropical Cyclone SIGMETs Buoy Winds and Wave Forecast Oahu Surf Observation and Forecast/Coastal Forecast for Hawaiian Waters Offshore Forecast for Hawaiian Waters North Pacific High Seas Forecast South Pacific High Seas Forecast Hawaiian Islands Automated Surface Observation System Hourly Weather Roundup Hawaiian Islands Wind Data Hawaiian Islands Rainfall Summary Hawaii Temperature and Precipitation Summary Daily Hawaii Cooperative Observations Honolulu AP Climate Summary Lihue AP Climate Summary Kahului AP Climate Summary Hilo AP Climate Summary Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion West Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 042 FXHW60 PHFO 011958 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 958 AM HST Thu Oct 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Winds will remain light through Saturday as a weak trough of low pressures passes from east to west across the area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the Big Island with a few interior and mauka showers expected elsewhere. A more typical trade wind weather pattern will return on Sunday and linger for a few days. Clouds and passing showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas. Winds will become light once again around Wednesday as a front approaches from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... A north thru south oriented low level trough along with its high precipitable water values is seen moving into the east side of the Big Island. Radar imagery is showing scattered showers and thunderstorms falling over portions of the Hilo and Puna districts. This feature along with daytime heating should allow for more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The remainder of the state will likely see some afternoon clouds build up with some showers possible mainly over interior locations. The low level trough is forecast to move slowly westward over the next couple of days. Winds will be light through Saturday with daytime seabreezes and nighttime land breezes dominating. This should allow for modest clearing overnight with clouds and showers expected to develop during the day Friday. Abundant moisture along with daytime heating should allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms once again mainly over the leeward Big Island slopes on Friday. The trough and its associated moisture field will be west of the area by Saturday with a drier weather pattern expected. High pressure will be building in back to our north on Sunday. This will allow for light to moderate trade winds to make a return but some sheltered locations will continue to experience daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes. Passing light showers are expected to favor windward and mauka areas. By Wednesday, a frontal system will be approaching the area from the northwest. This will once again cause our winds to drop off. The airmass is expected to remain dry so just a few showers are expected mainly over interior areas during the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION... A weak surface trough currently sits in the vicinity of Maui. It is noted as a patch of low clouds lingering around Maui, with a patch of low clouds lingering there. Another, stronger surface trough is closing in on the Big Island from the east and southeast. An area of convection is currently over the Puna and Hilo districts, with some heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. These two troughs are forecast to merge this afternoon, spreading the showers westward in the process. A slight chance of thunderstorms remains for the Big Island today, including the adjacent waters. There is a good possibility of AIRMET Sierra for the east facing slopes of the Big Island later this morning and this afternoon. In the afternoon, scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two, as well as showers expanding westward to Maui could require expansion of AIRMET Sierra to those areas as well. Expect scattered showers to spread to Oahu later this evening. Otherwise, generally light winds will allow for development of afternoon sea breezes (interior clouds) and nighttime land breezes (clearing inland), especially over the western end of the state. && .MARINE... The passage of a northern Pacific cold front today will maintain currently light to gentle easterlies through Friday. Late week high pressure building in northeast of the islands will generate a tight enough pressure gradient back across the state to produce moderate trade flow. Greater areal coverage of moderate trades will persist through early next week with locally fresh trades possible through those traditionally windier channels and bays surrounding Maui County and waters south of the Big Island this weekend. The eastern approach and western passage of a surface trough through tomorrow will keep rain chances and thunderstorm probabilities higher over over those waters to the south and southwest of the smaller islands and waters surrounding the Big Island Friday through Saturday. The current north to northwest swell will slightly drop off today with a larger north to northwest swell arriving tomorrow. This next swell is expected to push surf to (or near) advisory levels tomorrow along the northern shores of the smaller islands. Swell direction looks to be just north enough for island shadowing to keep most west-facing shores below advisory levels. The exception would be Kauai where west facing shores will be more exposed to this north swell. Surf will gradually lower Friday night through early next week. Surf along south-facing shores will trend lower through the rest of the week. A late season south swell is expected early next week that will likely boost surf above seasonal averages Monday through the middle of next week. Surf along east-facing shores will be primarily driven from wrap around associated with a series of north to northwest swells moving through the islands this weekend. East shore surf may substantially increase Sunday night through early next week as a long period east swell associated with eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Maria moves through. This could result in surf reaching advisory levels along most east-facing shores Monday through the middle of next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burke AVIATION...TS MARINE...Blood Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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This page was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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