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Menu of Text Products for the Hawaiian Islands and the Tropical Pacific/Atlantic Oceans: Select a text product: Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance Hawaiian Islands Short Term Forecast Hawaiian Islands 7-day Zone Forecast Hydrologic Outlook Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Statement Tornado Warning Severe Weather Statement Severe Thunderstorm Warning Special Weather Statement Winter Storm Warnings/Watches/Advisories Urgent Weather Message Marine Weather Statement/High Surf Advisory/Warning Special Marine Warning Radar Message Special Messages Unknown Terminal Aerodome Foreasts (TAFS) Area Forecast for Hawaii and Adjacent Coastal Waters Upper-level Winds and Temperature Forecast for the 4 Major Hawaii AP AIRMETs for IFR Conditions, Turbulence, and Icing Thunderstorm SIGMETs Hawaiian Islands Satellite Interpetation Message Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central/North Pacific Tropical Weather Summary Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Summary Tropical Cyclone SIGMETs Buoy Winds and Wave Forecast Oahu Surf Observation and Forecast/Coastal Forecast for Hawaiian Waters Offshore Forecast for Hawaiian Waters North Pacific High Seas Forecast South Pacific High Seas Forecast Hawaiian Islands Automated Surface Observation System Hourly Weather Roundup Hawaiian Islands Wind Data Hawaiian Islands Rainfall Summary Hawaii Temperature and Precipitation Summary Daily Hawaii Cooperative Observations Honolulu AP Climate Summary Lihue AP Climate Summary Kahului AP Climate Summary Hilo AP Climate Summary Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Discussion Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Discussion West Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 542 FXHW60 PHFO 130150 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 350 PM HST Mon Nov 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds with a few brief showers over mainly windward and coastal areas through Tuesday. Heading into midweek, winds will weaken as the ridge is disrupted, which will allow for afternoon clouds and showers over the interior of the islands. Trades are expected to return for the second half of the week, with increasing trade wind showers. Periods of high clouds are expected beginning Tuesday, which could become thicker later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Have made some tweaks to the forecast mainly in the first 36 hours, but no significant change to the forecast at this time. High pressure north of the islands has brought some moderate to locally breezy trade winds to the area, and these are expected to continue through tomorrow, with winds beginning to weaken later tomorrow as the ridge lifts north and weakens. Dewpoints remain in the 60s across the state, with some low 60s still being observed, keeping it feeling just a little cooler. Expecting dewpoints to climb a few degrees over the next day or so, with them rebounding to near 70 Wednesday in many locations. This is around the time the winds will be weak enough to produce some land and sea breezes. High clouds to the northwest of Kauai this afternoon are on track to begin moving over the islands tonight or tomorrow, and then thickening up overhead as we head into midweek. While the light winds usually lead to afternoon clouds and showers over the interior of the islands, and that is what we have in the forecast, the amount of high clouds overhead could inhibit some of this activity. An increase in winds is expected Thursday and Friday as a boundary approaches the state from the northwest. An upper level trough developing to the northwest of the state will bring in colder temperatures aloft, while moisture to the northeast is carried in on the easterly flow. While differences in timing and placement remain in the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, the models do agree with instability moving over the islands Friday through Sunday. That being said, with the colder air coming in from the northwest and the moisture coming in from the east, at this time it is difficult to pinpoint what, and where, things may develop. While thunder cannot be ruled out at this time, without more agreement in the models, will hold off putting the chance into the forecast. && .AVIATION... Typical trade pattern expected tonight with flow generally east northeasterly. Low stratocumulus clouds will push up against the windward side of the mountain slopes, producing MVFR conditions at times and periodic mountain obscuration. Moderate east northeast winds may generate light to occasionally moderate turbulence over and leeward of the island mountain ranges. Otherwise, VFR conditions persist. Airmet Tango in effect below 7000 feet for over and southwest of local mountain ranges for moderate turbulence, lasting through this evening. Winds and turbulence should ease slightly tonight. && .MARINE... High pressure centered north of the islands will be moving eastward and will cause the northeast trades to veer more easterly through Tuesday. Wind speeds are currently holding at the fresh to locally strong range and is expected to continue through tonight and possibly into Tuesday. Latest ASCAT pass showed winds have decreased over the the Kaiwi Channel, thus the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been adjusted to the typical windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. A front passing north of the islands will bring a decrease of trades Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Behind it, high pressure will be building in from the northwest Thursday, and fresh to locally strong northeast trades will be returning Friday into the weekend. The current north swell will continue to gradually subside through Tuesday. A larger north-northwest swell with a peak around 7 foot swell height and a 14 second period, is expected to fill in throughout the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night into Wednesday. Surf will likely reach advisory levels for exposed north and west facing shores, potentially as early as Tuesday. Then, a reinforcing northwest swell will arrive Thursday night into Friday with heights near the advisory levels across north and west facing shores. Another reinforcing north-northwest swell is possible Saturday. The south facing shores will continue to feel a small background southerly swell during the forecast period. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...M Ballard AVIATION... MARINE... Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office

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This page was last modified on: Wed, Dec 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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