NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
516
FXHW60 PHFO 181941
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
941 AM HST Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry trade wind conditions will prevail through next week.
Breezy northeast trade winds will briefly weaken over the weekend,
then become breezy again out of the east early next week. Clouds
and brief showers will favor windward and mauka locations, mainly
during the overnight through early morning hours, as areas of
moisture move through periodically.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest model guidance continues to depict mostly dry conditions
prevailing through next week as a series of surface highs build
and pass north of the state. The low-level flow has shifted out of
the northeast and wind speeds will become breezy today. Despite
the dry conditions in place, a weak upper trough and a remnant low-
level moisture boundary settling south into the smaller islands are
supporting scattered showers moving into windward areas of Oahu and
Kauai this morning. Rainfall totals have not amounted to much, with
only around a quarter of an inch reported over windward and mauka
areas of Kauai over the last few hours. High-res models show this
band sagging southward through the day and overnight, bringing some
additional showers to windward Maui County tonight, before diminishing.
The breezy trades will hold Friday, then ease into the light to
moderate range over the weekend as a weakness forms in the surface
ridge due to a low passing far to the north. The southern extent
of a mid- to upper-level trough associated with this system will
pass near the islands to the north during this time, which could
support a slight increase in windward shower coverage during the
overnight/early mornings this weekend. Rising upper heights along
with a strengthening surface ridge to the north will support dry
conditions prevailing early next week with breezy easterly trades
returning.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate trades will focus clouds and showers over windward and
mauka zones through the period. A strong inversion around 6.5kft
will maintain a firm cap on shower intensity, but enhanced
moisture over the western end of the state has allowed showers to
expand in coverage. AIRMET Sierra therefore remains in effect for
Kauai until conditions improve late this morning or early this
afternoon. Satellite trends suggests showers will expand eastward
over Oahu tonight potentially warranting AIRMET Sierra there as
the evening progresses.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh trades will persist through the end of the week
then weakening slightly over the weekend. Trades will become fresh
to locally strong early next week.
Small surf along south facing shores will hold as overlapping
south swells maintain elevated surf through the end of the week.
The current northwest swell will become increasingly north as it
gradually subsides through today. A small north swell will bring
a modest bump to exposed shorelines during the latter half of the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain small.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Foster
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
516
FXHW60 PHFO 181941
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
941 AM HST Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry trade wind conditions will prevail through next week.
Breezy northeast trade winds will briefly weaken over the weekend,
then become breezy again out of the east early next week. Clouds
and brief showers will favor windward and mauka locations, mainly
during the overnight through early morning hours, as areas of
moisture move through periodically.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest model guidance continues to depict mostly dry conditions
prevailing through next week as a series of surface highs build
and pass north of the state. The low-level flow has shifted out of
the northeast and wind speeds will become breezy today. Despite
the dry conditions in place, a weak upper trough and a remnant low-
level moisture boundary settling south into the smaller islands are
supporting scattered showers moving into windward areas of Oahu and
Kauai this morning. Rainfall totals have not amounted to much, with
only around a quarter of an inch reported over windward and mauka
areas of Kauai over the last few hours. High-res models show this
band sagging southward through the day and overnight, bringing some
additional showers to windward Maui County tonight, before diminishing.
The breezy trades will hold Friday, then ease into the light to
moderate range over the weekend as a weakness forms in the surface
ridge due to a low passing far to the north. The southern extent
of a mid- to upper-level trough associated with this system will
pass near the islands to the north during this time, which could
support a slight increase in windward shower coverage during the
overnight/early mornings this weekend. Rising upper heights along
with a strengthening surface ridge to the north will support dry
conditions prevailing early next week with breezy easterly trades
returning.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate trades will focus clouds and showers over windward and
mauka zones through the period. A strong inversion around 6.5kft
will maintain a firm cap on shower intensity, but enhanced
moisture over the western end of the state has allowed showers to
expand in coverage. AIRMET Sierra therefore remains in effect for
Kauai until conditions improve late this morning or early this
afternoon. Satellite trends suggests showers will expand eastward
over Oahu tonight potentially warranting AIRMET Sierra there as
the evening progresses.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh trades will persist through the end of the week
then weakening slightly over the weekend. Trades will become fresh
to locally strong early next week.
Small surf along south facing shores will hold as overlapping
south swells maintain elevated surf through the end of the week.
The current northwest swell will become increasingly north as it
gradually subsides through today. A small north swell will bring
a modest bump to exposed shorelines during the latter half of the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain small.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Foster
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office