|Wind||NNE 16 mph|
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 252010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1010 AM HST Sun Sep 25 2022
A surface ridge just north of the area will keep winds on the
lighter side through Monday morning. The ridge will strengthen
slight early in the week with trade winds flow gradually returning.
Clouds and passing showers will tend to favor windward and mauka
areas. Trade winds will increase a bit later in the week as a high
to the north strengthens.
Surface high pressure is centered far northeast of the area with
a ridge axis extending southwest to a position a couple of hundred
miles north of Kauai. Meanwhile a nearly stationary front is
located several hundred miles north northwest of the state. Winds
are on the lighter side favoring an east to southeast direction
across the area. Winds will be light enough today to allow for sea
breezes to develop across many areas. Clouds and a few showers
are expected to from over interior areas this afternoon and
evening under this scenario.
Over the next few days, the front will weaken and the ridge axis
will build in north of the area. This should allow for light to
locally moderate trade winds to develop across the area. Clouds
and passing showers will tend to favor windward and mauka areas
with most leeward locations remaining dry. Later in the week and
on into next weekend, the high will become a bit stronger to our
north which should give a slight boost to the trade winds.
Weak southeasterly background flow will continue today. Sea
breezes will develop across most island areas today and result in
cloud build ups and showers over the island interiors. Brief
mountain obscurations/MVFR ceilings may occur within the showers.
No AIRMETS are in effect this morning, but may need AIRMET Sierra
later on this afternoon for some islands if cloud cover becomes
more extensive. Clouds and showers are expected to clear out after
With an area of low pressure far west of the state and a weak
ridge just north of Hawaii, expect light to moderate east to
southeast winds to continue today. As the low tracks farther west
tonight, winds will back to more of an easterly direction and light
to moderate trade winds return through the first half of the week.
Wind speeds may approach Small Craft Advisory threshold during the
second half of the week.
South swell and accompanying south shore surf will remain elevated
today, then decrease tonight through Tuesday, leaving only background
swell by the middle of the week. Minimal energy is expected from
the south during the second half of the week. A small north-northwest
swell is forecast to arrive Wednesday followed by a slightly bigger
pulse over the weekend. Light trade winds will keep small surf in
the forecast along east facing shores through at least Wednesday
with a slight increase towards the end of the week as the trades
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office