| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 2.3 C |
| RH | | 14 % |
| Wind | | NE 28 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 292 FXHW60 PHFO 191325 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 325 AM HST Fri Apr 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure north of the state will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through the weekend and much of next week. Fairly dry trade wind weather will prevail through the period, with clouds and showers limited primarily to windward and mauka areas. && .DISCUSSION... Currently at the surface, a 1029 mb high is centered around 1500 miles north-northeast of Honolulu, with ridging extending southwestward from the high to a location around 350 miles north of Kauai. The resulting pressure gradient is driving moderate trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies in most areas, with patches of more extensive cloud cover in some windward locales. Radar imagery shows a few showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions in leeward sections. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances. A ridge of high pressure will prevail to the north of the state through the weekend and much of next week, keeping the trade winds blowing across the island chain. There could be a slight increase in trades over the weekend as the surface ridge axis lifts a bit further northward, but generally moderate to locally breezy trades should prevail. Upper level ridging will keep the airmass stable and rather dry with precipitable water values remaining at or below seasonal levels. As a result, expect fairly dry trade wind weather to prevail through the period, with showers confined primarily to windward and mauka areas. Leeward sections should remain dry most of the time, with isolated showers confined mainly to the overnight and early morning hours. && .AVIATION... A high pressure ridge north of the state will keep the islands in a moderate to breezy trade wind weather pattern into the weekend. Near surface wind speeds are strong enough to support moderate low level turbulence over and south through west of mountain ranges of all islands. Scattered shower activity will favor windward and mountain sections with brief periods of MVFR conditions mainly during the overnight hours. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 080. This AIRMET will likely remain in effect through the weekend. && .MARINE... No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Fresh to strong trades will continue into early next week as a ridge remains north of the islands. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains posted for the typical windier areas near Maui County and the Big Island through Sunday afternoon. Some of the models show an uptick in the winds tomorrow which could mean some additional areas near Maui County and the Big Island may need to be added to the SCA. At this time going to see how things pan out today and tonight before adding them in. Its possible that the SCA for the existing areas will be extended into next week. The current north-northwest swell is expected to peak today below advisory levels, and then slowly decline through the weekend. A small, west-northwest swell will be possible early next week, again expected below advisory levels. Background south-southwest swells will keep small surf along south facing shores through the weekend. An upward trend is expected early next week, as early as Sunday night, due to activity south to southeast of New Zealand over the past few days. Guidance depicts this source peaking at Pago Pago Saturday, which should correlate to above average south shore surf continuing into midweek. Surf along east facing shores could see a bump over the weekend with an uptick in the trades. See the latest Oahu Surf Discussion (SRDHFO) for additional details on surf and swell. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jelsema AVIATION...Bohlin MARINE...M Ballard Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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