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WindESE 48 mph
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

708
FXHW60 PHFO 300201
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
401 PM HST Thu Oct 29 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A front near the Big Island will weaken and lift away from the
state tonight. As the front lifts away, another weak trough
passing near the state will bring moderate west to northwest
winds through Saturday with some scattered showers. Most of these
showers should remain on the lighter side with only light rainfall
amounts expected. A ridge will build north of the islands by
Monday and bring a return of trade wind weather through most of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A front near the Big Island will weaken and lift away from the
state tonight. For rest of this afternoon, moderate to locally
heavy showers will continue to persist over the Big Island. These
showers should be on a downward trend tonight as the front moves
away from the state. Over the summits of the Big Island, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect, where southwest winds of 35 to 50 mph
are expected through at least Friday afternoon and possibly
through Saturday. Over the western end of the state, we will
continue to see a cooler and drier airmass with a few light
showers possible.

As we head into Friday, a weak trough passing near the state will
bring some scattered showers across the state. Westerly winds will
be on the increase on Friday and could produce gusty winds on the
east side of the islands as the winds blow downslope.

During the weekend, the trough will lift off to the northeast and
will allow the winds to decrease. Light to moderate westerly winds
will continue through Saturday and become light and variable on
Sunday. Winds should be light enough for the development of
afternoon sea breezes on Sunday. This will cause afternoon cloud
build ups with some scattered showers expected over interior areas
during the afternoon. Also, a weak trough aloft digging south
over the area could enhance showers on Sunday.

The global models are in good agreement showing a surface ridge building
north of the islands by Monday. The ridge will produce easterly
trade winds over the islands through most of next week.



&&

.AVIATION...
A stable W to NW flow will bring generally VFR conditions to areas
from Kauai to Maui County through Friday. Lingering moisture
around the Big Island will keep a few showers and low clouds
resulting in isolated MVFR conditions along coasts and lower
slopes through Friday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
A weakening front near northern Big Island will gradually
dissipate today and tonight. Moderate to fresh south to southwest
winds will persist over the waters surrounding the Big Island,
while light to moderate northwest to west winds are expected over
the waters adjacent to the smaller islands. This general wind
pattern is forecast to continue through Saturday as a surface low
moves south then north-northeast of the area and a series of weak
disturbances move across the western islands from the north-
northwest. Trade winds may return Sunday into early next week as a
surface ridge builds north of the state.

Buoy 51001 is showing 8 feet wave height and 11 second period
this afternoon from the north which suggests the main wave energy
generated from the low to our north will arrive at Kauai tonight
and Oahu late tonight. This north- northwest swell will subside
Friday night into the weekend. Surf along north and west facing
shores will stay elevated through early next week due to several
northerly swells. Surf along north and west facing shores may
reach advisory levels Sunday into Tuesday due to these northerly
swells before briefly subsiding mid week.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small into early next
week due to a mix of southerly swells. Surf along east facing
shores will trend up early next week with the possible return of
trades.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Big Island Summits.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Brenchley
MARINE...Almanza/Blood

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office