| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 3.1 C |
| RH | | 29 % |
| Wind | | SSW 2 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 252 FXHW60 PHFO 110625 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 825 PM HST Mon Aug 10 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge north of the islands will weaken slightly over the next few days. Moderate to breezy trade winds will decrease into the light to moderate range from Wednesday onward. Brief passing showers remain in the forecast, favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... The big picture remains unchanged with bands of clouds, shown on satellite just east of the Hawaiian Islands, drifting in with the trade winds. Expect a normal increase in shower activity along windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning time periods. A narrow upper level trough, also known as the TUTT, with several weak embedded upper lows remains locked in place north of the state. This upper trough will not impact local shower activity however it may bring up additional high cirrus clouds into the region over the next few days. A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the islands through the next seven day forecast period. The ridge will weaken slightly over the next few days causing trade wind speeds to decrease into the light to moderate range from Wednesday onward. Lighter trades may allow weak local scale sea breezes to develop along the more sheltered western slopes of each island during this time period. Fairly stable conditions will keep shower activity brief, the highest coverage for rainfall will linger along windward and mountain slopes of each island. Models continue to show good potential for tropical cyclone development along the tropical convergence zone over the next five days. This area is currently located 1900 miles east- southeast of Hilo Hawaii. Details on formation probabilities are contained in regularly-issued Tropical Weather Outlooks, which are available at hurricanes.gov, as are forecast advisories for active tropical cyclones. Stay tuned for updates as the tropical weather situation evolves over time. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will persist through Tuesday night. Clouds and scattered showers will continue to favor north and east coasts, as well as island interiors where localized sea breezes form. Partial clearing expected across leeward slopes after midnight due to land breezes. Isolated MVFR CIG and VIS will occur in passing showers, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all areas. AIRMET TANGO remains in effect below 8000 feet over and south thru west of mountains for occasional moderate turbulence. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will keep trade winds in place through the next 7 days, with only minor fluctuation in speed. As a result, expected moderate to locally strong trades to persist through the forecast period. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island through 6 pm Tuesday. Moderate to locally strong trades will keep steady surf in place along east facing shores during the next couple days. A new 10 second period northeast swell is expected to build Wednesday night and Thursday, hold through Friday, then slowly fade over the weekend. This will raise east shore surf to above the summertime average Thursday through Saturday. A small long-period east swell will be possible over the weekend in association with east Pacific Hurricane Elida. Only small southerly swells are expected along south facing shores through the week, with a bit of a bump possibly raising south shore surf to near the summertime average over the weekend. North shore surf will remain small through much of the next week, although some wrap from the northeast swell will likely bring a bump to surf heights Thursday through Saturday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...TS MARINE...Jelsema Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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