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WindENE 10 mph
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

521
FXHW60 PHFO 061335
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
335 AM HST Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will ease somewhat Sunday and Monday, and then
strengthen again next week. The trade winds will deliver low clouds
and showers to windward areas, with showers most active during
nights and mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy trade winds will diminish and veer to the ESE Sunday and
Monday as a low and associated front pass well N of the islands,
forcing a surface ridge to a position a couple hundred miles N of
Kauai. This alignment will allow for lighter winds over leeward
sections of Kauai and Oahu as the Big Island and Maui partially
block the easterly trade winds. Winds over the eastern islands look
to remain at moderate to locally fresh speeds.

Winds will strengthen and back to the ENE statewide Tuesday and
Wednesday, with breezy to windy conditions developing. The island
atmosphere is expected to remain capped by a subsidence inversion
that will limit shower intensity through the period. However, a weak
700 mb trough traversing the area today into Sunday will support
increased windward low cloud cover that will bring a few passing
showers that will primarily affect windward areas.

The slight reduction in wind speeds later this weekend could allow a
few leeward clouds and showers to develop over the smaller islands
in the afternoons in response to localized sea breeze convergence.
Leeward Big Island slopes can depend on daily afternoon cloudiness
and showers that will linger well into the night.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure to the northeast of the state will once again generate
moderate to occasionally breezy easterly trades late this morning
through the afternoon. Thus, expect scattered showers to drift along
the windward coasts and slopes. Periods of MVFR conditions will
likely accompany this aforementioned shower activity due to lower
ceilings and reduced visibility.

AIRMET TANGO remains in effect for over and immediately south
through west of mountains below 8000 feet for tempo moderate
turbulence.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure is roughly 600 nm north of Kauai this
morning. The ridge belongs to a high located 840 nm northeast of the
islands. These two features will maintain moderate to locally strong
trade winds through today. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect
through late this afternoon, not only for the typically windy areas
of Maui County and south of the Big Island, but also for both the
windward waters of Maui County and the Big Island, as determined
from a satellite pass overnight. An extension to this SCA is
possible through Sunday, as there are weak signs of this happening
from the models.

A front passing far to the north will bring the ridge a little
closer to the islands, so by Sunday or Monday, the trades would be
weaker, resulting in the cancellation of the SCA. This lull could be
short-lived, with SCA likely returning Monday night to the typically
windy waters, and continuing through at least the middle of next
week. This comes about as the front falls apart, allowing the ridge
to move north and the expansion of trade winds. Trade winds will
become strong and gusty trades area-wide, during the second half of
next week resulting in the expansion of the SCA.

A series of small south to southwest swells will maintain seasonal
average surf for the south facing shores through the upcoming week.
A small southwest swell that is now gracing our south facing shores,
will be held up by the arrival of a small Tasman Sea swell this
Wednesday. This swell will be slow to subside. The north facing
shores will have small surf through the weekend, and into next week.
Surf along east facing shores will be moderate and choppy today,
then becoming slightly smaller between Sunday and Monday, due to the
weaker trades. Surf will then rise in the ensuing days as the trades
are expected to ratchet it up. Expect surf heights along east facing
shores to come close to advisory level criteria of 8 feet or more.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maui County
Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big
Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Birchard
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Lau

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office