NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
382
FXHW60 PHFO 011957
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
957 AM HST Wed May 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will strengthen on Thursday and become breezy Friday
through the weekend. Rainfall will favor typical windward slopes,
with an increase in showers expected this weekend through the
first half of next week as a disturbance aloft passes overhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure centered far northeast of the state and a trough
just northwest of Kauai will maintain light to moderate east to
east-southeast winds over the western half and moderate easterly
trades over the eastern half of the state today. For rest of
today, we should see fairly dry conditions with a few light
showers developing over leeward areas this afternoon as the sea
breezes develop over select areas.
As the trough weakens and shifts westward on Thursday, high
pressure will build over the region and trade winds will
strengthen. By Friday, breezy trades are expected across the state
with locally strong trades over windier areas of Maui County and
the Big Island. As the trades strengthen, showers will also
increase primarily over windward and mauka areas. An upper level
low approaching the state from the west this weekend, should help
enhance the showers and will allow for brief downpours this
weekend into early next week. Although details are still
uncertain, windward and mauka areas could be come quite showery,
especially the western end of the state where the best instability
exists.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light to moderate ESE winds will gradually strengthen through
Thursday, with random clusters of showery low clouds delivering
brief periods of MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA, mainly windward. Winds may
be light enough to allow some leeward clouds and isolated showers
to develop this afternoon, but VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs are posted, but increased low-level turbulence to the
lee of the terrain is expected by Thursday, likely prompting the
issuance of AIRMET Tango.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will shift south through
the rest of the week and dissipate even as second high builds to
the north. A weak trough to the northwest of the state will shift
far northwest of state and dissipate. In response, moderate to
locally strong east-southeast winds will shift to a more typical
easterly direction by Thursday, then become fresh to locally
strong on Friday and hold into early next week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for
typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through
Thursday. This advisory will likely be expanded to include
additional waters as winds increase.
Along north and west facing shores, tiny surf will persist through
Friday. On Friday night, a small long-period swell will fill in,
triggering a small bump in the surf on Saturday. Lastly, a storm
low currently near the Kuril Islands will send another small, long
period northwest swell late Sunday that will maintain small surf
along north and west facing shores into early next week.
For south facing shores, small background south swells will
continue through Friday. A new small, long period swell should
fill in over the weekend providing a boost in surf along south
facing shores through early next week.
Along east facing shores, small, choppy surf will become rough
and choppy on Thursday in response to the strengthening trade
winds. Conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and
into early next week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Birchard
MARINE...Bedal/Vaughan
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
382
FXHW60 PHFO 011957
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
957 AM HST Wed May 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will strengthen on Thursday and become breezy Friday
through the weekend. Rainfall will favor typical windward slopes,
with an increase in showers expected this weekend through the
first half of next week as a disturbance aloft passes overhead.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure centered far northeast of the state and a trough
just northwest of Kauai will maintain light to moderate east to
east-southeast winds over the western half and moderate easterly
trades over the eastern half of the state today. For rest of
today, we should see fairly dry conditions with a few light
showers developing over leeward areas this afternoon as the sea
breezes develop over select areas.
As the trough weakens and shifts westward on Thursday, high
pressure will build over the region and trade winds will
strengthen. By Friday, breezy trades are expected across the state
with locally strong trades over windier areas of Maui County and
the Big Island. As the trades strengthen, showers will also
increase primarily over windward and mauka areas. An upper level
low approaching the state from the west this weekend, should help
enhance the showers and will allow for brief downpours this
weekend into early next week. Although details are still
uncertain, windward and mauka areas could be come quite showery,
especially the western end of the state where the best instability
exists.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light to moderate ESE winds will gradually strengthen through
Thursday, with random clusters of showery low clouds delivering
brief periods of MVFR VIS/CIG in SHRA, mainly windward. Winds may
be light enough to allow some leeward clouds and isolated showers
to develop this afternoon, but VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs are posted, but increased low-level turbulence to the
lee of the terrain is expected by Thursday, likely prompting the
issuance of AIRMET Tango.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will shift south through
the rest of the week and dissipate even as second high builds to
the north. A weak trough to the northwest of the state will shift
far northwest of state and dissipate. In response, moderate to
locally strong east-southeast winds will shift to a more typical
easterly direction by Thursday, then become fresh to locally
strong on Friday and hold into early next week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for
typical windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through
Thursday. This advisory will likely be expanded to include
additional waters as winds increase.
Along north and west facing shores, tiny surf will persist through
Friday. On Friday night, a small long-period swell will fill in,
triggering a small bump in the surf on Saturday. Lastly, a storm
low currently near the Kuril Islands will send another small, long
period northwest swell late Sunday that will maintain small surf
along north and west facing shores into early next week.
For south facing shores, small background south swells will
continue through Friday. A new small, long period swell should
fill in over the weekend providing a boost in surf along south
facing shores through early next week.
Along east facing shores, small, choppy surf will become rough
and choppy on Thursday in response to the strengthening trade
winds. Conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and
into early next week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Birchard
MARINE...Bedal/Vaughan
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office