NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
499
FXHW60 PHFO 121307
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
307 AM HST Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will gradually strengthen today and likely become
breezy from Friday through early next week as a surface ridge
over the islands lifts northward. Expect predominantly dry and
stable weather as the trades return, with clouds and showers
mainly affecting windward and mauka locations. Increasing moisture
combined with a mid-level disturbance moving through could lead
to an increase in windward shower coverage from Sunday night
through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A transition to a more typical easterly trade wind pattern is
expected today through Friday as a surface trough north of Kauai
lifts northwestward and a surface ridge over the islands retreats
northward. The early morning satellite imagery depicts a couple
of north-to-south oriented low cloud bands approaching, likely
marking the leading edge of the incoming breezy trades. As these
cloud bands move through over the next day or two, shower
coverage could periodically increase, particularly across
windward and mauka areas. A mostly dry and stable trade wind
pattern will follow and persist through the weekend as the ridge
remains north of the area.
For the extended period (Sunday night-early next week), guidance
shows an area of deeper moisture advancing westward through the
area, with PWs climbing to 1.5 to 2 inches (highest over the Big
Island). This surge in moisture combined with a mid-level trough
moving through could translate to an increase in windward shower
coverage, with some briefly making it into leeward locations of
the smaller islands due to a weakened/elevated inversion.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will return today and persist
through the weekend. SHRA and low cigs should mainly be focused
over windward and mauka locations. Some brief MVFR conds can be
expected in any SHRA. VFR conds should generally prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands will
continue to drift northwest. Light to gentle southeast flow will
give way to trade winds which will gradually strengthen into the
moderate to fresh range later today and continue through the
weekend. Models show winds across waters around Maui County and
the Big Island may briefly reach locally strong conditions, and
Small Craft Advisories may be needed through the weekend. As high
pressure builds northeast of the waters early next week, moderate
to locally strong trade winds will return.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as a
short to medium-period north swell fades through the end of the
week. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will rise to near normal
levels Friday through the weekend as trade winds return and
strengthen. A mix of background southwest and southeast swells
will produce small surf over the next few days. A slight uptick is
expected from the south south-west this Friday as a small long
period swell moves in and holds through the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
499
FXHW60 PHFO 121307
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
307 AM HST Thu Sep 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will gradually strengthen today and likely become
breezy from Friday through early next week as a surface ridge
over the islands lifts northward. Expect predominantly dry and
stable weather as the trades return, with clouds and showers
mainly affecting windward and mauka locations. Increasing moisture
combined with a mid-level disturbance moving through could lead
to an increase in windward shower coverage from Sunday night
through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A transition to a more typical easterly trade wind pattern is
expected today through Friday as a surface trough north of Kauai
lifts northwestward and a surface ridge over the islands retreats
northward. The early morning satellite imagery depicts a couple
of north-to-south oriented low cloud bands approaching, likely
marking the leading edge of the incoming breezy trades. As these
cloud bands move through over the next day or two, shower
coverage could periodically increase, particularly across
windward and mauka areas. A mostly dry and stable trade wind
pattern will follow and persist through the weekend as the ridge
remains north of the area.
For the extended period (Sunday night-early next week), guidance
shows an area of deeper moisture advancing westward through the
area, with PWs climbing to 1.5 to 2 inches (highest over the Big
Island). This surge in moisture combined with a mid-level trough
moving through could translate to an increase in windward shower
coverage, with some briefly making it into leeward locations of
the smaller islands due to a weakened/elevated inversion.
&&
.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will return today and persist
through the weekend. SHRA and low cigs should mainly be focused
over windward and mauka locations. Some brief MVFR conds can be
expected in any SHRA. VFR conds should generally prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak trough northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands will
continue to drift northwest. Light to gentle southeast flow will
give way to trade winds which will gradually strengthen into the
moderate to fresh range later today and continue through the
weekend. Models show winds across waters around Maui County and
the Big Island may briefly reach locally strong conditions, and
Small Craft Advisories may be needed through the weekend. As high
pressure builds northeast of the waters early next week, moderate
to locally strong trade winds will return.
Surf along north facing shores will continue to decline as a
short to medium-period north swell fades through the end of the
week. North shore surf will return to mostly flat levels over the
weekend. Surf along east facing shores will rise to near normal
levels Friday through the weekend as trade winds return and
strengthen. A mix of background southwest and southeast swells
will produce small surf over the next few days. A slight uptick is
expected from the south south-west this Friday as a small long
period swell moves in and holds through the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office