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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance |
FXHW60 PHFO 060117
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
317 PM HST Sun Jul 5 2020
Light to moderate easterly trade winds will produce showers over
windward slopes tonight, while a few showers linger over leeward
areas during the evening. Trade winds will gradually increase on
Monday and become locally breezy Tuesday into next weekend. The
stronger trades will promote a typical summertime weather pattern,
focusing rainfall along windward slopes and producing afternoon
showers over leeward Big Island.
Light to moderate trade winds have been overpowered by sea breezes
across most leeward areas this afternoon. The islands lie between
an area of moisture that moved through yesterday and a weak band
of moisture passing just north. As a result, windward rainfall has
been modest today. Sea breezes have triggered a few showers over
sheltered leeward slopes from Kauai to to Maui, and as is typical
in the summer, more extensive and briefly heavy shower activity
has flared over leeward Big Island.
Easterly trade winds will remain somewhat suppressed tonight and
will begin a gradual increase Monday afternoon. The incoming band
of moisture will produce showers along mainly windward slopes
tonight, possibly into early Monday morning on Kauai. Leeward
shower activity will decrease during the evening as lingering
convection dissipates and gives way to land breezes. Aside from
trailing moisture over Kauai, showers should be less active on
Monday as a drier and more stable airmass moves in from the east.
Trade winds will become locally breezy by Tuesday as high
pressure builds far north of the state. A typical summertime
weather pattern is expected into next weekend. Rainfall will be
largely focused over windward slopes, while afternoon showers
develop each afternoon over leeward Big Island. A ridge aloft will
maintain stable conditions.
VFR conditions prevail at most TAF sites this afternoon. Periods
of MVFR conditions are expected through the evening hours for
portions of the leeward Big Island slopes where locally heavy
showers are occurring. There may be some brief MVFR conditions
through the overnight hours over windward slopes of all islands.
Light to moderate east-southeast winds will hold tonight as a
weak trough west of Kauai continues westward away from the state.
A return of a more typical trade wind pattern is anticipated
Monday with winds reaching the moderate to fresh range. Winds
should ramp up to fresh to strong by Tuesday, likely requiring a
Small Craft Advisory for the typical windier waters around Maui
County and the Big Island. The advisory may need to be expanded to
additional marine areas as the trades continue to increase though
the week. Seas will also approach advisory level (10 ft) over the
Alenuihaha Channel and waters south of the Big Island by the end
of the week.
Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the week,
with mainly a mix of small south and south-southeast energy. For
the extended, guidance depicts a a solid area of gales setting up
in the Tasman Sea through the first half of the week, which could
result in an uptick in surf locally by mid-month.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Tuesday,
then gradually trend up through the rest of the week as the trades
increase locally and upstream of the islands across the eastern
Pacific. Surf along north facing shores will remain small through
the upcoming week.
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office