| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 7.1 C |
| RH | | 19 % |
| Wind | | NNW 4 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 657 FXHW60 PHFO 121958 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 958 AM HST Sun Jul 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through Monday, with an increase in trade showers expected beginning tonight as an upper level low nears the state. A more active shower pattern will hold through the middle of the week as the trade winds ease into the light to moderate range. A more typical trade wind shower regime will return for the end of the week, with lighter trades holding through Friday, then becoming breezy next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Our typical breezy trade wind weather will hold through today with some scattered showers over windward and mauka areas. Leeward areas with the exception of the Kona area will remain mostly dry and sunny for the rest of the day today. An upper level low currently located about 550 miles north of Big Island will begin to inch closer and will likely bring some periods of enhanced moisture during the first half of the week. Beginning tonight, a slight increase of showers are expected across windward and mauka areas as a weak disturbance passes north of the islands. This weak disturbance is expected to pass north of Oahu Monday morning and move near Kauai by mid day. So overall, some light to moderate rain showers will be on the increase for Maui County and the Big Island tonight, Monday morning for Oahu and in the afternoon for Kauai. Trade winds will remain fairly breezy through the day Monday, but some fluctuations are expected particularly for Oahu and Kauai as this weak disturbances passes nearby. Starting Tuesday, the high currently located far north-northeast of the state will begin to drift further east and away from the state. This will allow the trades to weaken to light to moderate speeds and will remain through much of the upcoming work week. Another round of some enhanced moisture is possible Monday night into Tuesday. By the middle of the week, the upper level low will begin to drift further west and a drier air mass will begin to move in from the east. This should bring back our fair trade wind weather to the eastern half of the state on Wednesday, while some clouds and showers continue to linger over the western half of the state. Long story short, very little weather impacts are expected through the first half of the week, but an increase of clouds and showers are expected. && .AVIATION... High pressure to the north will maintain a moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern over the region through tomorrow. An upper level low to the northeast could enhance some of the trade wind shower activity that will be focused over windward and mountain areas. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with some periods of MVFR in clouds and showers. Greater chance for MVFR conditions tonight and tomorrow as upper level low moves closer to the region. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical turbulence to the lee of the islands. Expecting this AIRMET to remain in place for another day or so with the locally breezy trades in place. No other AIRMETs expected today, however as alluded to above, an AIRMET for mountain obscuration is possible tonight or tomorrow with clouds and showers moving in. && .MARINE... High pressure far to our north-northeast is providing for breezy trade winds across the area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently posted for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The high is forecast to drift eastward over the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in trade wind speeds expected by Tuesday. The SCA will likely be discontinued by then. These lighter trade winds will continue through Thursday. Seas will remain well below the 10 foot SCA threshold throughout the forecast period. Surf heights are expected to remain on the small side through the weekend and on through most of next week. There will be a series of small southerly swells that will keep surf near of just above background levels. A slightly larger long period south swell may fill in around Friday. East facing shores will continue to experience short period choppy surf produced by the trade winds. A small but slightly longer period east swell produced from Tropical Cyclone Cristina far in the eastern Pacific, may provide a slight uptick in surf heights during the late Tuesday through Friday time period. No other significant swells are expected. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...M Ballard MARINE...Burke Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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