NWS Bulletins for NPAC - MKWC
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
884
FXHW60 PHFO 061950
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
950 AM HST Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge will remain just north of Kauai during the next
couple days, keeping the trades light and allowing for land and
sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will lift
northward this weekend allowing trade winds to gradually return
and strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy trades conditions are
expected by Sunday and persist through the middle of next week.
Very dry conditions will greatly limit shower activity through the
weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected
Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a east to west oriented ridge of high
pressure has settled southward to around 150 miles north of
Kauai, and this has weakened the trades with land breezes present
in many leeward areas. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly
clear conditions island wide this morning. Radar imagery and rain
gage observations continue to show dry conditions across the
state. Expect clouds to build along the upslope and interior
portions of the island today as a sea breeze develops this
afternoon. Clouds should clear overnight with the land breeze.
Chances of showers will remain very limited as a very low
inversion (3-4 kft) will keep any cloud/shower development very
shallow.
The land/sea breeze pattern will hold through Friday as the ridge
of high pressure remains north of the state, keeping the trades
light and an area of slightly above normal moisture remains over
the state. The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend
allowing the trades to gradually strengthen, with moderate to
locally breezy conditions expected Sunday through the middle of
next week. Clouds and showers will tend to focus along windward
and mauka areas, however shower activity will remain limited
across the entire state due to very stable and low inversion
levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift early next
week, which should bring a slight increase in trade wind showers
Monday and Tuesday, while still remaining drier than normal for
this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern should return
by the middle of next week as the trade wind inversion rises
further.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak pressure gradient across the region will keep light winds
across the islands. This will allow for daytime sea breezes and
nighttime land breezes to develop. However, expect clouds and
showers to be limited due to a relative dry air mass. Conditions
will remain mainly VFR, with brief MVFR possible during the
afternoon and evening hours.
No AIRMETs are in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening trade winds over the region. Expect wind
speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold
through the end of the week. The ridge will lift northward over
the weekend, allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models
show the potential for SCA conditions across typical windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.
A south-southwest swell will arrive later today and peak Friday.
A moderate long period south-southwest swell will build into this
weekend, peaking Sunday night into Monday near High Surf Advisory
levels. A moderate long period south swell is expected to reach
HSA levels late next week. The current small northwest swell
continues to decline. Another small pulse from the northwest is
expected to build through this afternoon, keeping surf elevated.
Wind waves for east facing shores have diminished significantly
and will remain small into the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office
Narrow the Menu List
Select Time Limit: 12 hours | 24 hours | 48 hours | 72 hours | No time limit
Select Product Type: All | Routine Bulletins/FCSTS | Warnings/Watches/Advisories | HAWN Weather | Tropical | Marine | Aviation | Daily Obs | Special
Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance
884
FXHW60 PHFO 061950
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
950 AM HST Thu Jun 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface ridge will remain just north of Kauai during the next
couple days, keeping the trades light and allowing for land and
sea breezes to form across much of the state. The ridge will lift
northward this weekend allowing trade winds to gradually return
and strengthen. Moderate to locally breezy trades conditions are
expected by Sunday and persist through the middle of next week.
Very dry conditions will greatly limit shower activity through the
weekend, with a slight increase in windward showers expected
Monday and Tuesday. A more typical trade wind pattern should
return by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a east to west oriented ridge of high
pressure has settled southward to around 150 miles north of
Kauai, and this has weakened the trades with land breezes present
in many leeward areas. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly
clear conditions island wide this morning. Radar imagery and rain
gage observations continue to show dry conditions across the
state. Expect clouds to build along the upslope and interior
portions of the island today as a sea breeze develops this
afternoon. Clouds should clear overnight with the land breeze.
Chances of showers will remain very limited as a very low
inversion (3-4 kft) will keep any cloud/shower development very
shallow.
The land/sea breeze pattern will hold through Friday as the ridge
of high pressure remains north of the state, keeping the trades
light and an area of slightly above normal moisture remains over
the state. The ridge will begin to lift northward over the weekend
allowing the trades to gradually strengthen, with moderate to
locally breezy conditions expected Sunday through the middle of
next week. Clouds and showers will tend to focus along windward
and mauka areas, however shower activity will remain limited
across the entire state due to very stable and low inversion
levels. The trade wind inversion will begin to lift early next
week, which should bring a slight increase in trade wind showers
Monday and Tuesday, while still remaining drier than normal for
this time of year. A more typical trade wind pattern should return
by the middle of next week as the trade wind inversion rises
further.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak pressure gradient across the region will keep light winds
across the islands. This will allow for daytime sea breezes and
nighttime land breezes to develop. However, expect clouds and
showers to be limited due to a relative dry air mass. Conditions
will remain mainly VFR, with brief MVFR possible during the
afternoon and evening hours.
No AIRMETs are in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
The ridge to the north of the islands continues to slowly sink
southward, weakening trade winds over the region. Expect wind
speeds to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold
through the end of the week. The ridge will lift northward over
the weekend, allowing moderate trade winds to build back. Models
show the potential for SCA conditions across typical windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island by Sunday.
A south-southwest swell will arrive later today and peak Friday.
A moderate long period south-southwest swell will build into this
weekend, peaking Sunday night into Monday near High Surf Advisory
levels. A moderate long period south swell is expected to reach
HSA levels late next week. The current small northwest swell
continues to decline. Another small pulse from the northwest is
expected to build through this afternoon, keeping surf elevated.
Wind waves for east facing shores have diminished significantly
and will remain small into the weekend.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Ahue
MARINE...Powell
Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office