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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

FXHW60 PHFO 160643

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
843 PM HST Mon Apr 15 2024

Mostly dry and pleasant conditions will prevail through the week
as high pressure builds to the north. Light to moderate northwest
winds will shift out of the north Tuesday into Wednesday, then
out of a more typical northeast trade wind direction through the
second half of the week. As the trades return, clouds and light
showers will favor the typical windward and mauka locations
overnight through the morning hours.


The evening satellite imagery showed deep low pressure to the
north and its attendant surface front that moved through over the
past couple of days shifting east of the state as a trough.
Light to moderate northwest winds have filled in over the islands
in the wake of the front, ushering in a much drier air mass
today. Dewpoints dipped into the upper 50s to low 60s this
afternoon, which has led to pleasant conditions. The latest model
guidance has initialized well with the current pattern and depicts
mostly dry conditions prevailing through the week as high
pressure builds north of the state. The northwest winds will veer
out of the north Tuesday into midweek (light enough for localized
land/sea breezes to form through Tuesday night), then out of the
northeast through the rest of the week. The strong winds at the
summits of Maui and the Big Island should begin to ease Tuesday
through midweek as the upper system moves away from the area.
Although mostly dry conditions will prevail, a weak upper trough
moving in Wednesday through Thursday, combined with a remnant low-
level moisture boundary settling south into the area may be
enough for a few light showers over north through northeast facing
slopes. The breezy trades will weaken briefly late Friday through
Saturday as a weak system passes to the north, then return to
breezy levels Sunday into early next week as high pressure builds
to the north.


A weak front near the Big Island will shift slowly southeast
tonight and Tuesday, with light northerly flow gradually filling
in across the island chain. The winds will be light enough to
allow for overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes in many
areas. Some lingering low clouds and showers may bring some MVFR
cigs to the Big Island terminals this evening, otherwise VFR
conditions are generally expected during the next 24 hours.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence N through
NE of the mountains on the Big Island. Little change is expected
overnight, with improvement expected on Tuesday.


Remnants of the old front near the Big Island will dissipate and
drift southeast through Tuesday. Light to moderate west to
northwest winds have filled in behind the front except moderate to
fresh south to southwest winds over the east Big Island waters.
Winds look to veer Tuesday with light northwest to north winds,
before moderate to fresh northeast winds will fill in by late
Wednesday through Friday.

Surf along north and west facing shores will increase through
this evening as a mixed-period northwest swell continues to build,
bringing elevated surf to exposed shores as the swell peaks
overnight. A Small Craft Advisory for Kauai waters for increasing
seas is in effect through Tuesday. This swell will gradually
diminish as it becomes increasingly north the next couple of days.
Otherwise, a combination of southeast and southwest swells will
support small surf along south facing shores the next couple of
days. Surf along east facing shores will remain very small, then
gradually trend up as the northeast trade winds increase later in
the week.


Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Haleakala Summit.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters.



Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office