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Temp4.2 C
RH4 %
WindE 4 mph
RoadOpen (4x4)
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance

343
FXHW60 PHFO 270629
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
829 PM HST Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will
build into the region on Monday, increasing trade wind speeds into
the moderate to locally breezy range through Friday. Fairly
typical cloud and shower trends will return with passing showers
over the windward and mountain areas of each island, favoring the
overnight to early morning hours. An upper level disturbance
passing over the islands next weekend may briefly increase cloud
and shower trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this evening shows less cloud cover as compared
to this time last night. These cumulus clouds will bring brief
passing showers to windward and mountain areas through the early
morning hours. Local radar imagery shows isolated shower activity
over the northwestern islands and more scattered showers near Maui
and the Big Island. Scattered high level cirrus clouds continue
to drift over the state courtesy of the subtropical jet stream.

The high pressure system far north of the islands will build into
the region on Monday, increasing trade wind speeds to the moderate
to locally breezy range by Monday afternoon. Model cross sections
continue to show trade wind temperature inversion heights in the
6,000 to 8,000 foot range, which means cloud tops will be high
enough for continued passing showers over windward and mountain
areas of each island through Friday.

An upper level low drifts into the area by this weekend. This
upper low will anchor a lower level 700 mb trough under the low
center as the system drifts from southeast to northwest across the
islands. The passage of this low may briefly increase long range
cloud and shower coverage trends from Saturday through Sunday.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate trades will persist into Monday morning, then
increase into the moderate to breezy category by Monday
afternoon. Although VFR conditions will prevail for most areas,
expect brief periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in and around showers that
develop and move through.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. However, AIRMET Sierra
for mountain obscuration can't be ruled out later tonight into
Monday morning for windward areas of the eastern end of the
state.

&&

.MARINE...
Trade winds will hold at gentle to moderate speeds through
tonight as a front passes between the islands and a surface high
well north of Kauai. The high will build far northeast of the
state Monday and Tuesday, leading to an increase in trade winds.
A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the typically windy
waters around the Big Island and Maui County through at least the
middle of the week, and likely through next weekend.

The first of two pulses of south swell has come in larger than
expected. The Barbers Point PacIOOS buoy is now over 4 ft at 17
seconds this evening. A High Surf Advisory has been issued
through Monday afternoon. Although a slight decline in surf is
possible late Monday, the next pulse of south swell due on Tuesday
will produce another round of elevated surf through Wednesday.
This swell will gradually decline Thursday and Friday.

Surf along exposed north and east facing shores could see a bump
in small, short period swell into Monday. Surf along north shores
will drop Tuesday, while strengthening trade winds will boost
rough east shore surf to around seasonal average into next
weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward
South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South
Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...TS

Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office