| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 3.0 C |
| RH | | 9 % |
| Wind | | E 11 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 436 FXHW60 PHFO 090628 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 828 PM HST Wed Jul 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... The breezy trade wind pattern will continue through early next week. Windward shower coverage is expected to increase late tonight through early Friday as a mid-level disturbance and higher moisture move through from east to west. Drier trade wind conditions will prevail Friday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery showed the subtropical ridge anchored north of the islands and patchy low-level clouds approaching and moving through from east to west. Some of these clouds are generating brief showers as they move through - mainly over windward and mountain areas this evening. Rain gages around the islands reflect this and showed peak accumulations ranging from a quarter to half of an inch over the past 6-Hrs (through 7 pm HST). Although no significant changes are anticipated for much of the night, satellite-estimated precipitable water (PW) imagery depicted a decent sized area of higher moisture approaching from the east with the leading edge currently a few hundred miles east of Hilo (values up to around 1.6 to 1.7 inches). Guidance has initialized well with this upstream moisture and shows it moving into the eastern end of the island chain late tonight into Thursday, then to the western end of the state late Thursday through early Friday. A combination of this moisture, a mid-level trough moving through and breezy trades will support an increase in windward shower coverage through this time. Some could be briefly heavy and make it into leeward areas. Drier air will follow beginning Friday as this moisture and mid-level feature shift west of the area. Although confidence remains very low being this far out in time, model solutions are trending toward a wet middle- to latter-half of next week as a remnant trough associated with Tropical Storm Cristina in the far eastern Pacific approaches and moves into the area. Additional fine tuning of the forecast will be expected over the coming days as forecast confidence rises. && .AVIATION... Strong high pressure far northeast of the state will continue to generate moderate to breezy trade wind flow. Surface wind speeds will decrease overnight, but redevelop Thursday afternoon. Breezy winds at summit level combined with a well defined inversion aloft at approximately 09kft are generating low level mechanical turbulence to the lee of higher terrain. AIRMET Tango will likely remain necessary through Thursday afternoon and possibly beyond. Bands of low topped cumulus showers embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to impact mainly north and east facing slopes and coasts. Isolated MVFR CIG or VIS are to be expected in passing showers, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail all areas. Meanwhile, across Leeward Big Island, light sea breezes will give way to weak land breezes within the next few hours. Partial clearing has already begun across Leeward and Interior Big Island, and mostly clear skies are expected by morning. Both the sea breezes and the interior cumulus build-ups will redevelop across leeward and Interior Big Island Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through the weekend and into early next week, as strong high pressure holds in place far north and northeast of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island through Sunday. This SCA will likely need to be extended into early next week. No significant swells are due through much of the week. A mix of mainly background southerly swells will dominate, with a south- southwest swell giving south shore surf a bit of a boost Thursday and Friday. Trade wind swell will gradually build to around the summer average by Thursday, then hold into early next week. A small long-period swell from the tropical cyclone Cristina could arrive early next week as well. Surf along north facing shores will remain small through the next 7 days. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gibbs AVIATION...Bedal MARINE...Jelsema Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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