| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 6.1 C |
| RH | | 13 % |
| Wind | | NNE 7 mph |
| Road | | Open |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 069 FXHW60 PHFO 031912 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 912 AM HST TUE NOV 3 2009 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS ON KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY...AND INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SHOWERS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...BUT TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST. TRADE WINDS WILL EASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND FORECAST REASONING THIS MORNING...AS THE ADVERTISED FRONT/SHEAR LINE PASSAGE IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE RATHER ACTIVE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING...THE ADVERTISED CHANGED IN AIR MASS IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS EARLIER FORECAST. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO MANY OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS AND UPDATED CORRESPONDING FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES. THE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW JUST N OF KAUAI...WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INVOKING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT/SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY TO THE NW OF KAUAI. STRONG N/NE WINDS EXIST JUST TO THE N AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH BUOYS TO THE NW OF KAUAI INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT+...AND FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS NEAR 18 FEET. AS THIS TROUGH SHARPENS JUST W OF KAUAI TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...AND THE ASSOCIATED TIGHTENED SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW ALOFT TRACKS W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT/S INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW SUIT...AND TRADE WINDS WILL MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. TRADE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY ACTIVE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU INTO TONIGHT...BUT WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS LATER WEDNESDAY... AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO THE NW WILL WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL THEN BUILD E WELL N OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL VEER TO THE SE. THE SURFACE RIDGE MAY MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. && .MARINE... THE OAHU SURF FORECAST /SRFHFO/ CONTAINS A DETAILED LOOK AT EXPECTED SWELL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CAN BE LOOSELY APPLIED TO THE OTHER ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU...AS COMBINED SEAS ARE AT OR ABOVE 10 FEET...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 17 TO 20 FEET AT BUOYS 51001/51101 200 NM TO THE NW OF KAUAI. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS. && $$ BIRCHARD Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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