| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | -2.1 C |
| RH | | 15 % |
| Wind | | NNE 16 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 843 FXHW60 PHFO 200629 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 829 PM HST Sun Jan 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and pleasant conditions in place are expected to continue this week. Breezy trade winds will hold through Monday, then shift out of the southeast and diminish Tuesday through Friday. A mostly dry land and sea breeze pattern will result, with the best chance for a few clouds and showers setting up over interior areas through the afternoon periods. A front will stall and weaken near Kauai Friday with trades briefly returning Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... A broad surface high is centered just north of Hawaii and will provide stable conditions and breezy trades over the next day. Dew points are in the low 60s across the state this evening, while afternoon soundings at Hilo and Lihue showed strong, low inversions and precipitable water between 0.75 and 1 inch. While conditions are mostly dry, a small pocket of incoming clouds is observed on infrared satellite just upstream of the smaller islands. This pocket of moisture will bring a chance for a few light showers over windward slopes through the night. Elsewhere, mostly dry and pleasant conditions will prevail across the islands through Monday. A progressive pattern setting up over the northern Pacific is expected through the week as the jet becomes highly zonal. Two back- to-back fronts passing to the north Tuesday and Friday will be the result. The first front will shift the high towards the southeast and bring the associated ridge over the islands. The winds will respond by veering southeast and diminishing Tuesday and continuing through Friday, allowing a land and sea breeze regime to setup. Rain chances will remain limited due to the dry air and strong subsidence expected through this time period. The best chance for a few clouds and light showers will shift over interior areas through the afternoon hours each day. Long range GFS and ECMWF stall and weaken the front near Kauai on Friday, with possible an uptick in showers for the northern end of the state. Trade winds may briefly return Saturday as a bubble high quickly passes north of the state before the next passing front to the north causes the wind to veer out of the southeast Sunday. && .AVIATION... This evening, the majority of the clouds and a few showers are over the windward areas of Maui and the Big Island, as well as the adjacent windward coastal waters. Expect windward areas of all islands will likely see an uptick in shower activity during the overnight hours before partial clearing by late morning Monday. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible with these isolated showers, but expect VFR to prevail overall. Breezy trade winds warrant the continuation of AIRMET Tango for tempo low level turbulence below 7,000 feet. && .MARINE... A surface high passing far N of the islands is supporting strong NE trade winds, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains posted for all waters through Monday. As the high moves steadily E and a front approaches from the NW the next couple of days, winds will veer and gradually weaken as the associated ridge moves closer to the islands. Winds will become E Monday, light SE Tuesday, and light and variable Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge moves over the islands. A new high passing N of the islands around Friday will push a second front toward the islands, while supporting moderate trade winds heading into next weekend, with the front currently expected to stall near Kauai and Oahu. A new long-period NNW swell will build overnight, and surf is expected to peak at advisory levels, thus a High Surf Advisory has been issued for exposed N and W shores. This swell will diminish late Monday and Tuesday, but will be followed on Wednesday by a significantly larger NW swell that will likely peak near High Surf Warning heights, with an even larger swell potentially arriving next Saturday. Choppy surf along E facing shores will gradually diminish as winds weaken the next couple of days. Winds and seas warrant an extension of the existing SCA through Monday, but diminishing winds and seas will allow its cancellation by Tuesday at the latest. Seas associated with the two large NW swells will warrant an SCA for most areas. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for North and west facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Niihau, and north facing shores of Maui. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters- && $$ DISCUSSION...Foster AVIATION...Morrison MARINE...Kinel Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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