| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 8.3 C |
| RH | | 26 % |
| Wind | | NE 17 mph |
| Road | | Closed |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 815 FXHW60 PHFO 171944 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 944 AM HST Thu Oct 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trade winds and passing windward showers are expected into next week. Humidity and rainfall may increase a notch over the weekend as tropical moisture moves over the island chain. && .DISCUSSION... No changes to the forecast at this time, but anticipate fine tuning some of the PoPs and associated fields with the afternoon package. The overnight surface analysis showed a surface trough to the northwest of Kauai, which is expected to continue to move to the west and weaken. The mid to upper level low associated with this system is further to the west and continues to move away from the islands, allowing a more stable airmass to move overhead. High pressure far north of the islands is bringing trade winds back to the area, and these should continue into next week. Good model agreement with the high slowly moving to the east through the weekend. A front approaching from the northwest this weekend will help to bring in more tropical moisture from the south. At the same time, we could see the winds shift to a bit more of a southeasterly direction at the end of the weekend. The front is not expected to reach the islands. Models agree with the high lifting northward next week, which could be weakening our trade winds a bit. Moisture riding in on the trades could mean a wetter trade wind pattern. && .AVIATION... As an upper-level low moves west away from the state today, some lingering instability will continue shower activity around leeward Kauai. Otherwise, moderate easterly trades will push much of the shower activity against the windward coasts and slopes, though isolated -SHRA may periodically push over onto leeward sides. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in these areas, but overall, VFR will prevail through tonight. && .MARINE... A strong high north of the area will maintain locally strong easterly trade winds over the coastal waters through at least Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for Maalaea Bay, the Pailolo and Alenuihaha Channels and waters south of the Big Island. The SCA will likely need to be extended into the weekend. Winds are forecast to weaken and veer to the east- southeast starting Saturday night as the high moves farther east and a front approaches from the northwest. Near-shore buoys continue to show an increase in energy as the new west-northwest swell and north swell fills in this morning. These swells are expected to peak well below advisory levels later today into tonight and gradually decline through the weekend. A small reinforcing north-northwest swell is expected on Saturday. Background swells will continue to provide small surf along south facing shores over the next few days. Last week, a storm force low far southeast of New Zealand, tracked east with seas growing to 30 to 40 feet near 60S 150W. Although most of the swell will pass east of the state, we should see an increase in long-period surf along south facing shores starting Friday night due to angular spreading. This swell will likely peak Saturday night and gradually subside through early next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...M Ballard AVIATION...TS MARINE...Kino Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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