| Current Conditions | ||
| Temp |  | 4.2 C |
| RH | | 4 % |
| Wind | | E 4 mph |
| Road | | Open (4x4) |
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Hawaiian Islands Synoptic Discussion and Guidance 343 FXHW60 PHFO 270629 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 829 PM HST Sun Jun 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will build into the region on Monday, increasing trade wind speeds into the moderate to locally breezy range through Friday. Fairly typical cloud and shower trends will return with passing showers over the windward and mountain areas of each island, favoring the overnight to early morning hours. An upper level disturbance passing over the islands next weekend may briefly increase cloud and shower trends. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery this evening shows less cloud cover as compared to this time last night. These cumulus clouds will bring brief passing showers to windward and mountain areas through the early morning hours. Local radar imagery shows isolated shower activity over the northwestern islands and more scattered showers near Maui and the Big Island. Scattered high level cirrus clouds continue to drift over the state courtesy of the subtropical jet stream. The high pressure system far north of the islands will build into the region on Monday, increasing trade wind speeds to the moderate to locally breezy range by Monday afternoon. Model cross sections continue to show trade wind temperature inversion heights in the 6,000 to 8,000 foot range, which means cloud tops will be high enough for continued passing showers over windward and mountain areas of each island through Friday. An upper level low drifts into the area by this weekend. This upper low will anchor a lower level 700 mb trough under the low center as the system drifts from southeast to northwest across the islands. The passage of this low may briefly increase long range cloud and shower coverage trends from Saturday through Sunday. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... Light to moderate trades will persist into Monday morning, then increase into the moderate to breezy category by Monday afternoon. Although VFR conditions will prevail for most areas, expect brief periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in and around showers that develop and move through. There are currently no AIRMETs in effect. However, AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration can't be ruled out later tonight into Monday morning for windward areas of the eastern end of the state. && .MARINE... Trade winds will hold at gentle to moderate speeds through tonight as a front passes between the islands and a surface high well north of Kauai. The high will build far northeast of the state Monday and Tuesday, leading to an increase in trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui County through at least the middle of the week, and likely through next weekend. The first of two pulses of south swell has come in larger than expected. The Barbers Point PacIOOS buoy is now over 4 ft at 17 seconds this evening. A High Surf Advisory has been issued through Monday afternoon. Although a slight decline in surf is possible late Monday, the next pulse of south swell due on Tuesday will produce another round of elevated surf through Wednesday. This swell will gradually decline Thursday and Friday. Surf along exposed north and east facing shores could see a bump in small, short period swell into Monday. Surf along north shores will drop Tuesday, while strengthening trade winds will boost rough east shore surf to around seasonal average into next weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...Gibbs MARINE...TS Bulletins, Forecasts and Observations are courtesy of Honolulu National Weather Service Forecast Office |
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